Meanwhile, gold is still in an uptrend, joined by XAU, but since the capture of fifteen British sailors by the Iranians, gold has moved up only marginally in two weeks, hardly a spike, and not an energetic buy signal to really higher levels. This slow uptrend could easily be cut short if the Iranians come to their senses.

With the threat of expanded conflict with Iran, oil has been climbing gradually above 60, but also could be cut short if the threat is solved. While the long term for oil is higher prices, short term is not so clear.

The dollar rallied to 84.24 before ending at 82.93, and Congress passed the latest 2008 budget version with another large deficit, almost ensuring that the dollar will keep sagging into 2009. Two thirds of the budget is consumed by Social Security and Medicare, virtually untouchable. They are, however, both bringing in more cash than is spent, so they are the present day cash cows for the Federal spending machine. That only lasts for a few more years.

The long bond yield climbed from 4.67% to 4.85%. It could be that the Treasury is selling new bonds to raise cash to pay for the deficits.

During March, Congress quietly raised the debt limit to almost $9 trillion (8.965), and the House did it automatically without even voting. Our money supply is increasing about 10% per year, and the new debt is necessary to cover the deficits the Federal Government is creating for our grandchildren to pay.

Several subprime mortgage companies have rolled over and called it quits and foreclosures are increasing much more than expected. The housing market is feeling its pain. Construction is down, sales are down for new and old homes, people in the business are getting laid off, new mortgages are down, foreclosures are up, and housing stocks are down. The trend is not good and will probably get worse as unemployed contruction workers and mortgage brokers hit the pavement.

fn            Fund                1 mo   3 mo  12 mo   2 yr   3 yr
10 LEXMX ING Precious Metals A.    4.6    3.2    4.8   78.8   56.5
22 VGPMX Vanguard Prec Metals .    3.0    6.3   17.4   94.5  125.0
 1 ASA   ASA Ltd              .    2.7    0.5    1.6   74.2   58.8
11 MIDSX Midas Fund           .    2.2    7.7   22.5  128.7  107.2
13 OPGSX Oppenheimer Gold A   .    2.2    5.5   21.5  102.9  100.2
 8 FKRCX Franklin Gold & PrMt A    2.1    2.9   14.6   96.3   83.9
 4 SGDAX DWS Gold & Prec Mtls A    0.6    0.8    9.4   67.5   41.5
20 USAGX USAA Precious Metals .    0.3    3.2   19.9  113.3   88.7
17 TGLDX Tocqueville Gold     .    0.2    2.4   15.2   88.3   75.4
 9 GOLDX GAMCO Gold AAA       .    0.2   -0.5    9.1   80.8   59.2
 7 SGGDX First Eagle Gold A   .   -0.0    1.1    6.9   61.7   46.9
 5 EKWBX Evergreen Prec Mtls B.   -0.1    0.4   12.5   89.4   71.9
 2 FGLDX AIM Gold & Pr Mtls Inv   -0.3    1.1   10.4   76.2   65.6
16 RYPMX Rydex Prec Metals    .   -0.3   -0.3    3.1   57.7   26.8
 6 FSAGX Fidelity Select Gold .   -0.4   -0.3    6.1   79.9   63.4
15 INPMX Riversource Prec MtlsA   -0.6    0.6    8.9   78.6   42.7
26 HUI   Amex Gold Bugs Index .   -0.6   -0.2    0.4   67.3   43.1
23 GDX   Mkt V Gold Miners ETF.   -0.8   -0.8   		         
24 GLD   StrtTrks Gold Shrs ETF   -1.1    4.0   13.1   53.5       
21 INIVX Van Eck Intl Inv GoldA   -1.3    1.0   15.3   94.5   74.4
 3 BGEIX Amer Cent Global Gold.   -1.3   -2.6    4.0   68.9   49.3
19 UNWPX US Global World Pr Mns   -1.6   -0.2    9.9   98.3   89.4
27 XAU   Phlx Gold/Silver Index   -1.9   -3.7   -3.3   46.2   30.5
12 OCMGX OCM Gold             .   -3.0   -0.7    9.7   81.0   50.8
14 PMPIX Profund Prec Mtls Ultr   -3.7   -9.0  -14.9   42.1   16.0
18 USERX US Global Gold Shares.   -4.0   -4.5    6.2   99.4   76.6
25 SLV   iShrs Silver Trust ETF   -5.5    3.8 		              

ING Precious Metals (LEXMX) jumped out in front of all other gold funds as the overall gold fund sector was mixed. SLV gave up some recent gains, falling to the bottom of the list.

The Position indicator gives the relative position of a fund between its 52 week high and low. A high is represented by +100 and its low by -100. Positions and prices as of the end of March:

                                              nav
fn          Fund                  pos   02/28/07  03/30/07
11 MIDSX Midas Fund           .   65.2     4.52     4.62
20 USAGX USAA Precious Metals .   46.9    28.58    28.67
24 GLD   StrtTrks Gold Shrs ETF   44.4    66.48    65.74
23 GDX   Mkt V Gold Miners ETF.   44.1    39.90    39.57
 2 FGLDX AIM Gold & Pr Mtls Inv   40.8     6.17     6.15
 8 FKRCX Franklin Gold & PrMt A   39.9    32.28    32.95
 6 FSAGX Fidelity Select Gold .   38.7    36.54    36.38
13 OPGSX Oppenheimer Gold A   .   38.3    29.92    30.57
17 TGLDX Tocqueville Gold     .   34.9    52.54    52.67
22 VGPMX Vanguard Prec Metals .   33.6    28.93    29.81
25 SLV   iShrs Silver Trust ETF   33.4   141.25   133.52
 5 EKWBX Evergreen Prec Mtls B.   30.3    55.07    55.01
21 INIVX Van Eck Intl Inv GoldA   28.2    16.37    16.16
16 RYPMX Rydex Prec Metals    .   25.5    56.40    56.21
 1 ASA   ASA Ltd              .   21.6    63.00    64.69
26 HUI   Amex Gold Bugs Index .   19.2   339.80   337.66
10 LEXMX ING Precious Metals A.    8.4    10.36    10.84
18 USERX US Global Gold Shares.    4.7    15.98    15.34
15 INPMX Riversource Prec MtlsA    4.2    14.16    14.08
 3 BGEIX Amer Cent Global Gold.    2.0    19.38    19.12
12 OCMGX OCM Gold             .   -0.1    18.42    17.87
19 UNWPX US Global World Pr Mns   -0.3    27.64    27.21
 9 GOLDX GAMCO Gold AAA       .   -0.7    24.81    24.85
 4 SGDAX DWS Gold & Prec Mtls A   -4.3    20.71    20.83
 7 SGGDX First Eagle Gold A   .   -9.0    21.09    21.08
27 XAU   Phlx Gold/Silver Index  -21.3   139.66   137.01
14 PMPIX Profund Prec Mtls Ultr  -66.4    38.55    37.12 

Midas Fund (MIDSX) is doing its best to hold gains and not giving them up as the market falls back. Most funds are still above their 52 week averages, but XAU has given up its gains for the year and for most of last year.

The following list shows the approximate size of funds as measured in total assets under management. (In $millions as of the end of March) This is only an approximation as the size changes daily with new purchases, redemptions, and nav changes. Relative positions of the funds usually don't change much. The largest remain the largest.

fn         Fund                  $assets
22 VGPMX Vanguard Prec Metals .   3321
 6 FSAGX Fidelity Select Gold .   1437
 3 BGEIX Amer Cent Global Gold.   1004
 8 FKRCX Franklin Gold & PrMt A    941
19 UNWPX US Global World Pr Mns    877
17 TGLDX Tocqueville Gold     .    853
 7 SGGDX First Eagle Gold A   .    693
20 USAGX USAA Precious Metals .    651
 1 ASA   ASA Ltd              .    650
13 OPGSX Oppenheimer Gold A   .    642
21 INIVX Van Eck Intl Inv GoldA    412
 9 GOLDX GAMCO Gold AAA       .    380
23 GDX   Mkt V Gold Miners ETF.    340
18 USERX US Global Gold Shares.    227
16 RYPMX Rydex Prec Metals    .    195
 4 SGDAX DWS Gold & Prec Mtls A    170
14 PMPIX Profund Prec Mtls Ultr    155
 2 FGLDX AIM Gold & Pr Mtls Inv    149
11 MIDSX Midas Fund           .    143
10 LEXMX ING Precious Metals A.    125
12 OCMGX OCM Gold             .    104
15 INPMX Riversource Prec MtlsA     83
 5 EKWBX Evergreen Prec Mtls B.     74

Three funds are well over a billion dollars in assets, but GLD reported its total holding exceeded $10 billion in bullion.

The beta indicator measures the relative volatility of a fund's net asset value (nav) movement over the last 52 weeks as compared to the gold fund group average, 1.0. This number indicates volatility by measuring the difference between a fund's high and low navs, but does not specify the direction of movement, so it is only a measurement of relative activity of the price of the fund.

fn       fund                     beta
14 PMPIX Profund Prec Mtls Ultr    1.70
26 HUI   Amex Gold Bugs Index .    1.45
25 SLV   iShrs Silver Trust ETF    1.33
27 XAU   Phlx Gold/Silver Index    1.11
13 OPGSX Oppenheimer Gold A   .    1.08
24 GLD   StrtTrks Gold Shrs ETF    1.07
 4 SGDAX DWS Gold & Prec Mtls A    1.04
11 MIDSX Midas Fund           .    1.03
 3 BGEIX Amer Cent Global Gold.    1.00
 9 GOLDX GAMCO Gold AAA       .    1.00
 1 ASA   ASA Ltd              .    1.00
16 RYPMX Rydex Prec Metals    .    0.98
18 USERX US Global Gold Shares.    0.98
 8 FKRCX Franklin Gold & PrMt A    0.97
10 LEXMX ING Precious Metals A.    0.97
 5 EKWBX Evergreen Prec Mtls B.    0.95
17 TGLDX Tocqueville Gold     .    0.95
 7 SGGDX First Eagle Gold A   .    0.95
15 INPMX Riversource Prec MtlsA    0.95
20 USAGX USAA Precious Metals .    0.94
21 INIVX Van Eck Intl Inv GoldA    0.90
 2 FGLDX AIM Gold & Pr Mtls Inv    0.88
12 OCMGX OCM Gold             .    0.88
 6 FSAGX Fidelity Select Gold .    0.82
19 UNWPX US Global World Pr Mns    0.81
22 VGPMX Vanguard Prec Metals .    0.78
23 GDX   Mkt V Gold Miners ETF.    0.75

The beta for each fund may change as the fund advances and declines, but the general position on the ladder doesn't change much, except as a reference to other funds. As you can see, there is a big difference between portfolio management policies of different funds. The greatest difference is the policy of Profund (PMPIX) to leverage purchases or go 100% cash when they want. This policy produces a higher volatility rating and more amplified returns in an up market. So far they haven't proven that their timing is very good.

As I read more analysts' comments about gold about to take off over 700 and beyond, I still see that gold equities have not made much of a move since December. Something is holding them back, and that is the market's failure to have much confidence in gold stocks. Gold is trending upward, but slowly, as if it's waiting for something to happen which will push the price back down, like a central bank selling unexpectedly. XAU and gold funds have usually been the leader for major market moves, but we are not seeing it this time around. Most gold equities are far off their highs and could use a good kick. It will take more than fifteen hostages to do it.

The subprime mortgage problem will probably move into the normal mortgage business and pull down the housing market at least a little more, and maybe a bunch more. Since new home construction and mortgage promotions have provided much of the new employment over the past five years, we are going to see an increase in unemployment and another wave of foreclosures. That will bleed over into the total economy. Expect higher interest rates and inflation.

The American public has no idea of what's happening to their currency, and what else will happen in the near future.

It is looking more like the 70's all over again, and that means a higher price for gold.