EagleWing Research Newsletter on Gold Funds
February 1, 2000
GLOBAL WATCH
Comparing Funds | Comments
The conflict in Chechnya continued as Russia remains committed to victory, aided by strong public support. As mentioned before, losing the war to the rebels would be detrimental for peace in the rest of that area.
Other areas of the world were unusually quiet as the year 2000 got under way. Pakistan, India and Indonesia cooled off rhetoric, increasing the chances of lasting peace in those areas of the world and good for stable international finances.
Gold moved from 288.5 to 281.1, back up to 289.3 and closed the month back down to 283.2. Silver couldn't hold its rally at 5.41, but tried another surge after falling to 5.10. It closed the month at 5.25. XAU represented most of the funds by falling from 67.9 to 59.9. The long bond closed the month rallying slightly, pushing the rate down to 6.49% after hitting 6.74% in midmonth. The dollar gained against the yen from 102 to 107 yen/dollar.
COMPARING FUNDS
Global Watch | Comments
Funds ranked by percentage change in net asset value for January.
fn Fund 1 mo 3 mo 12 mo 2 yr 3 yr
18 PRPFX Permanent Portfolio . -2.0 -6.6 -6.7 -4.4 2.77
11 STSLX Lexington Strat Silver -3.0 -2.0 2.9 -23.1 -32.14
9 FGLDX INVESCO Strat Gold . -6.4 -12.0 -12.5 -36.1 -69.13
7 FKRCX Franklin Gold A . -6.8 -2.6 16.6 0.7 -28.40
15 METBX Morgan St DW Prc Mtls. -7.1 -5.2 -2.5 -22.8 -51.01
16 OPGSX Oppenheimer Gold A . -7.2 -6.5 5.8 -1.0 -26.60
1 ASA ASA Ltd . -7.6 -12.8 7.5 -19.5 -41.69
20 SCGDX Scudder Gold . -8.0 -9.8 0.7 -20.2 -48.46
22 TGLDX Tocqueville Gold . -8.1 -9.4 13.6 17.5
21 SGGDX SoGen Gold . -8.3 -15.5 -4.8 -22.5 -42.60
28 VGPMX Vanguard Gold/Pr Mtls. -8.8 -2.5 16.0 3.3 -27.61
4 EKWBX Evergreen Prec Mtls B. -9.2 -10.5 -4.8 -24.4 -46.64
25 USAGX USAA Gold . -10.0 -11.5 -2.0 -8.3 -36.33
27 INIVX Van Eck Intl Inv GoldA -10.8 -14.7 -20.0 -34.4 -53.34
10 LEXMX Lexington Goldfund . -10.9 -12.3 -2.7 -16.0 -44.64
14 MNTGX Monterey OCM Gold . -11.0 -14.3 -11.6 -22.5 -46.64
24 UNWPX US Global World Gold . -11.2 -16.1 -19.0 -40.0 -59.31
8 GOLDX Gabelli Gold . -11.2 -11.5 -0.4 -14.9 -52.78
5 FSAGX Fidelity Sel Gold . -11.9 -12.4 -1.8 -17.4 -44.58
17 PPMCX PIMCO Adv Prc Mtls C . -11.9 -14.0 -17.4 -34.2 -60.34
23 USERX US Global Gold Shrs . -12.1 -14.8 -10.4 -42.6 -73.02
3 INPMX Amer Exp IDS Prc Mtl A -12.2 -9.4 -10.2 -22.7 -55.78
19 RYPMX Rydex Prec Metals . -12.3 -12.3 -9.7 -25.2 -50.43
6 FDPMX Fidelity Sel Prec Mtls -12.5 -12.7 -3.2 -14.7 -45.92
2 BGEIX Amer Cent Global Gold. -12.7 -18.2 -14.9 -30.2 -54.14
26 GRFRX Van Eck Gold / Res A . -14.3 -19.3 -19.9 -35.5 -56.34
13 MIDIX Midas Investors . -16.6 -16.3 -21.6 -43.3 -75.48
12 MIDSX Midas Fund . -19.9 -21.0 -24.8 -51.3 -78.19
January turned out to be one of the worst months in the last three years as all funds fell, some dramatically. While gold slipped only a few dollars, gold equities fell out of bed. Most were approaching yearly lows and four funds set new lows at the end of the month. Silver was trying to hold up under the pessimism in precious metals.
The Position indicator gives the relative position of a fund between its 52 week high and low. Its high is represented by +100 and its low by -100.
fn Fund pos nav(1-31)
28 Vanguard Gold/Pr Mtls. -0.8 7.67
7 Franklin Gold A . -25.4 8.98
1 ASA Ltd . -43.5 17.50
8 Gabelli Gold . -43.9 5.53
22 Tocqueville Gold . -45.8 11.75
15 Morgan St DW Prc Mtls. -50.3 4.60
11 Lexington Strat Silver -54.2 2.87
6 Fidelity Sel Prec Mtls -57.8 9.27
5 Fidelity Sel Gold . -58.5 13.02
21 SoGen Gold . -59.1 5.39
16 Oppenheimer Gold A . -62.5 9.71
4 Evergreen Prec Mtls B. -62.6 10.49
25 USAA Gold . -64.2 5.38
23 US Global Gold Shrs . -66.5 3.27
20 Scudder Gold . -66.7 6.07
10 Lexington Goldfund . -68.1 2.93
14 Monterey OCM Gold . -75.6 4.21
24 US Global World Gold . -80.7 7.27
3 Amer Exp IDS Prc Mtl A -80.9 5.08
18 Permanent Portfolio . -83.4 17.45
2 Amer Cent Global Gold. -86.5 4.62
19 Rydex Prec Metals . -96.0 4.01
9 INVESCO Strat Gold . -97.2 1.61
17 PIMCO Adv Prc Mtls C . -98.8 3.99
26 Van Eck Gold / Res A . -100.0 2.34
12 Midas Fund . -100.0 1.09
27 Van Eck Intl Inv GoldA -100.0 5.11
13 Midas Investors . -100.0 2.21
High positive numbers represent a fund near its 52 week high and negative near its 52 week low. Four funds set new lows on January 31 as all were in decline.
The following chart shows the approximate size of funds as measured in total assets under management in $millions. (As of January 31) This is only an approximation as the size changes daily with new purchases, redemptions, and nav changes. Relative positions of the funds don't change much. The largest remain the largest.
fn fund assets
28 Vanguard Gold/Pr Mtls. 319
7 Franklin Gold A . 222
1 ASA Ltd . 182
2 Amer Cent Global Gold. 144
5 Fidelity Sel Gold . 141
27 Van Eck Intl Inv GoldA 134
6 Fidelity Sel Prec Mtls 104
20 Scudder Gold . 90
25 USAA Gold . 83
16 Oppenheimer Gold A . 75
9 INVESCO Strat Gold . 71
24 US Global World Gold . 57
18 Permanent Portfolio . 55
10 Lexington Goldfund . 54
12 Midas Fund . 53
3 Amer Exp IDS Prc Mtl A 36
19 Rydex Prec Metals . 29
26 Van Eck Gold / Res A . 28
15 Morgan St DW Prc Mtls. 22
11 Lexington Strat Silver 22
23 US Global Gold Shrs . 22
8 Gabelli Gold . 15
4 Evergreen Prec Mtls B. 13
21 SoGen Gold . 12
22 Tocqueville Gold . 11
17 PIMCO Adv Prc Mtls C . 7
13 Midas Investors . 5
14 Monterey OCM Gold . 1
As would be expected, all funds lost asset value this month as they all declined.
The in-house beta measures the relative volatility of a fund's net asset value(nav) movement over 52 weeks as compared to the gold fund group average, 1.0. This number indicates volatility but does not specify the direction of movement, so it is only a measurement of relative activity of the fund.
fn fund beta
26 Van Eck Gold / Res A . 1.29
14 Monterey OCM Gold . 1.21
1 ASA Ltd . 1.21
2 Amer Cent Global Gold. 1.20
23 US Global Gold Shrs . 1.16
5 Fidelity Sel Gold . 1.13
21 SoGen Gold . 1.11
8 Gabelli Gold . 1.10
6 Fidelity Sel Prec Mtls 1.10
12 Midas Fund . 1.08
27 Van Eck Intl Inv GoldA 1.06
22 Tocqueville Gold . 1.05
24 US Global World Gold . 1.05
7 Franklin Gold A . 1.03
19 Rydex Prec Metals . 1.00
3 Amer Exp IDS Prc Mtl A 0.99
25 USAA Gold . 0.92
16 Oppenheimer Gold A . 0.92
4 Evergreen Prec Mtls B. 0.92
9 INVESCO Strat Gold . 0.89
13 Midas Investors . 0.84
28 Vanguard Gold/Pr Mtls. 0.83
17 PIMCO Adv Prc Mtls C . 0.82
10 Lexington Goldfund . 0.82
20 Scudder Gold . 0.76
15 Morgan St DW Prc Mtls. 0.75
11 Lexington Strat Silver 0.35
18 Permanent Portfolio . 0.21
*** Funds that diversify with government treasuries, bullion or natural resource stocks generally have a lower beta and are less volatile compared to a portfolio concentrating on small capitalization mining companies. These numbers have remained stable, changing little within the past three months.
INVESTING COMMENTS
Global Watch | Comparing Funds
The month was so lacking in international tension that the descent in mining equities sets up a buying opportunity for market timers. The decline in fund assets and equity prices far exceeds the relative equivalent decline in gold, indicating a serious lack of interest in gold stocks, perhaps as a result of the passing of the Y2K scare.
Another contributing factor is the upcoming sale and gold auction by the Bank of England, which certainly has affected investment attitudes in the metals arena.
The partial recovery in the long U.S. bond, dropping the interest rate from a high of 6.74% to 6.49%, probably removed any short term enthusiasm for inflation seekers, hurting gold prices. This was another indication of a strong dollar as it climbed above 107 yen. The recent record high for the trade deficit seems to have had no effect.
As some may notice, EagleWing Research has moved to New Mexico recently. This will not affect the monthly newsletter and weekly update after this week.
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